The Longshot

Ruler On Ice wins the 143 Belmont Stakes

Well, the Belmont Stakes was yesterday, and if I were a betting person, I would have won some money. Ruler On Ice crossed the finish like 3/4 of a length in front of Stay Thirsty to become the 143 Belmont Stakes winner.

The race began with a catastrophic beginning for Kentucky Derby winner, Animal Kingdom. The colt clipped heals with longshot Monzon, almost loosing his jockey, John Velazquez. He never got back into the race after that, but was able to get a respectable 6th.

Shackleford, the Preakness Stakes winner, set the early slow pace with a moderate quarter-mile in :23.92 then slowed to a leisurely :49.08 for the opening half, 1:14.51 for three-quarters, and 1:39.95 for a mile. But as I mentioned in my post before the Belmont Stakes, I did not believe Shackleford had the type of breeding in him to make the entire 1 1/2 mile. I was right. Shackleford gave up his lead, eventually finishing 5th.

My other picks for the Belmont Stakes, Brilliant Speed and Mucho Macho Man, finished 3rd and 7th. Brilliant Speed showed his quality when he held on to 3rd, barely beaten by Stay Thirsty for 2nd. I really don't think Mucho Macho Man was in the race, unfortunately. He was kind of just running with no intentions of going anywhere.

All in all, it was a good race. I was disappointed for the connections of Isn't He Perfect, who was the last place finisher. I really wanted him to get a good placing, if only because I fell for his cinderella-type story. But that's horseracing: you never know who will come out on top, or in this case, on the bottom.

143 Belmont Stakes

Saturday is the 143 Belmont Stakes, and with the field being as it is, the race will probably end up being a toss up to whoever can maintain the grueling 1 1/2 mile trek to the finish line.


The Field:


 1. Master of Hounds, 10-1
 2. Stay Thirsty, 20-1
 3. Ruler On Ice, 20-1
 4. Santiva, 15-1
 5. Brilliant Speed, 15-1
 6. Nehro, 4-1
 7. Monzon, 30-1
 8. Prime Cut, 15-1
 9. Animal Kingdom, 2-1
10. Mucho Macho Man, 10-1
11. Isn't He Perfect, 30-1
12. Shackleford, 9-2


Kentucky Derby winner, Animal Kingdom, and Preakness winner, Shackleford, are included in the 12 horse field. But I don't think either of them will win. Maybe get in the money (2 or 3), but one of them getting first seems unlikely to me.

Animal Kingdom

While Animal Kingdom may be a good horse, I don't think he has what it takes to get the 1 1/2 mile distance of the Belmont Stakes. It would be great if he could, but I don't think I would place my main bet on him to win.


Shackleford is all muscles; he is as big as a draft horse. But still, I do not think he can make the distance. He just doesn't strike me as a 1 1/2 mile runner to me. More of a Preakness horse, as he displayed by winning the race almost three weeks ago. I would love for this horse to prove me wrong and win the Belmont, though. More than any horse in the field, I would really like to see him wearing the bed of white carnations in the winners circle.

Shackleford

Since the classic winners are more or less off my list of possible winners of the Belmont Stakes, I have had to look at the other colts who are entered. One of them is Brilliant Speed, an average sized bay colt by Dynaformer. Though he may look like his size: average, he has some hidden values that caught me by surprise.


Brilliant Speed's entire pedigree is laced with Belmont Stakes winners.


Here is his Belmont bred pedigree in a nutshell:

Brilliant Speed

Brilliant Speed’s broodmare sire, Gone West, sired Belmont winner Commendable. Gone West’s sire, Mr. Prospector, sired Belmont winner Conquistador Cielo. Gone West’s broodmare sire, Secretariat, won the Belmont, sired Belmont winner Risen Star, and is the broodmare sire of Belmont winner A.P. Indy, who in turn sired Belmont winner Rags to Riches. Mr. Prospector’s broodmare sire, Nashua, won the Belmont.
 
Brilliant Speed’s second dam, Daijin, is a full-sister to Belmont winner Touch Gold. Daijin’s sire, Deputy Minister, not only sired Touch Gold, he is the broodmare sire of Belmont winners, Rags to Riches, Sarava, and Jazil. Daijin’s broodmare sire, Buckpasser, is the broodmare sire of Belmont winners Easy Goer and Coastal.
 
Getting back to the sire’s side, Roberto’s sire, Hail to Reason, sired Belmont winner Hail to All. Dynaformer’s broodmare sire, His Majesty, is the broodmare sire of Belmont winner Risen Star, and His Majesty’s sire, Ribot, sired Belmont winner Arts and Letters, as well as His Majesty’s full-brother, Graustark, who sired Belmont winner Avatar.


Isn't that impressive??? I thought so.


Brilliant Speed is the one that I am rooting on to either win, or place second or third. And who wouldn't? He has the most brilliantly bred pedigree.

Ruler on Ice

 I also like a chestnut, Kentucky bred colt by Roman Ruler. Ruler On Ice may not have the most impressive racing record, but I've just always has 'a feeling' about this longshot. Maybe he'll get a good placing, maybe he won't. 


Although Ruler On Ice may not have the greatest race record (a few 2nds and 3rds), he does have a good pedigree. His sire, Roman Ruler, is one of the top breeding stallions. His grandsire, Fusaichi Pegasus, won the Kentucky Derby, and is also a good sire.

Mucho Macho Man

With no gray horse in the field (I always 'bet' on a gray horse to win in the triple crown races), I have decided to go with the cinderella-story colt, Mucho Macho Man, as my third choice. He is a leggy colt with a lot of room to run. His trainer, the only female trainer in the field, is confident her colt will love the distance.


Those are the three colts I have picked out to either win, place, or show. Though I am open to the possibility that Animal Kingdom and Shackleford will wrong me and get good placings. But I am rooting for Brilliant Speed as my number 1 pick.